:Product: 0826RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 26/0446Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0402Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11 pfu at 26/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Aug). III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug Class M 60/60/65 Class X 10/10/15 Proton 95/10/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Aug 202 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 200/200/205 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 007/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 009/010-009/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/25/25