:Product: 0827RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 26/2134Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1101Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13 pfu at 27/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug). III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug Class M 60/65/65 Class X 10/15/15 Proton 50/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Aug 226 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 225/225/228 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 138 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 009/010-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/20