:Product: 0828RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Aug 29 0005 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 28/2149Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 28/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug). III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug Class M 60/65/65 Class X 10/15/15 Proton 50/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Aug 232 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 235/240/240 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 139 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-006/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 25/20/30