:Product: 0901RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 01/2039Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/2031Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 01/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep). III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep Class M 60/60/55 Class X 20/20/15 Proton 60/10/10 PCAF Yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Sep 202 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 205/200/195 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 143 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 009/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 039/055-011/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/20 Minor Storm 35/15/05 Major-severe storm 50/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 01/10/15 Minor Storm 10/25/30 Major-severe storm 85/50/25