:Product: 0903RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (06 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 806 km/s at 03/0403Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep). III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep Class M 50/50/35 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Sep 180 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 180/178/175 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/ 034 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 007/008-008/012-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/35 Minor Storm 05/15/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/50/60