:Product: 0904RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (07 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 04/0412Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 387 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep). III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep Class M 55/55/40 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Sep 172 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 168/162/158 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 013/018-020/025-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/60/55