:Product: 0905RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 686 km/s at 04/2105Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 793 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Sep). III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep Class M 55/40/40 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Sep 149 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 140/140/138 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 145 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 020/025-018/028-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 60/70/50