:Product: 0916RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 857 km/s at 16/0022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3346 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (19 Sep). III. Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Sep 135 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 138/138/140 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 034/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 013/015-009/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/30/20