:Product: 0923RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 22/1052Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 22/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 690 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep). III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep Class M 35/35/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Sep 171 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 168/165/160 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 012/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 009/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/20