:Product: 0925RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 25/0347Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 679 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Sep). III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Sep 170 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 006/005-008/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/25/40