:Product: 0926RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep). III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Sep 165 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 008/008-013/018-011/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 05/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/45/40