:Product: 0927RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Sep 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 26/2115Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1723 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Sep, 29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Sep). III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep Class M 55/55/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Sep 164 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 013/018-011/014-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/40/35