:Product: 1215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 14/2119Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 809 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Dec). III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Dec 118 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 120/120/118 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/008-013/015-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor Storm 05/20/30 Major-severe storm 01/05/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/50/70