:Product: 1222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 800 km/s at 22/1535Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1882 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Dec). III. Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec Class M 30/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Dec 133 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 018/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 015/020-013/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/40/40