:Product: 1227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed slowly decreasing from about 500 km/s to 460 km/s levels. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1930Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6,123 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec). III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 65/65/65 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 15/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 178 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10