:Product: 1229RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Dec 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 29/1634Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6,690 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan). III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Dec 196 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 146 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 007/008-011/012-021/026 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/45 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/40/70