:Product: 0101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 31/2250Z from Region 3938 (N19W28). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and likely to be moderate on day three (04 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 01/0711Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 01/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 01/1623Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (04 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Jan, 03 Jan). III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan Class M 80/75/70 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jan 219 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 220/215/220 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 205 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 047/085 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 012/015-012/015-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/50/15