:Product: 0102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/2141Z from Region 3936 (N13W84). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 02/0905Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 02/0936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 02/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 422 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan). III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 55/60/60 Class X 10/15/15 Proton 10/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 212 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 204 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 048/126 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 010/012-014/018-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/40 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/65/60