:Product: 0103RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 03/1139Z from Region 3947 (N11E57). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 Jan, 05 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 03/0139Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 03/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 03/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan Class M 55/55/50 Class X 15/15/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jan 200 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 200/190/185 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 203 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 014/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 014/018-015/018-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/35 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/60/50