:Product: 0105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 05/0239Z from Region 3947 (N11E29). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Jan, 07 Jan) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (08 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 782 km/s at 05/0241Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1707Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 05/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1067 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan). III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan Class M 75/75/60 Class X 25/25/15 Proton 50/15/15 PCAF Yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jan 169 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 172/165/165 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 021/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 016/022-012/012-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor Storm 30/10/05 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 65/45/25