:Product: 0106RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 06/1624Z from Region 3947 (N11E16). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Jan) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 06/1532Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0328Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1508 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan Class M 70/65/60 Class X 25/20/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jan 172 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 012/012-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 55/25/10