:Product: 0107RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/0609Z from Region 3947 (N12E03). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (08 Jan) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 07/0527Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 07/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0509Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3074 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan Class M 70/65/60 Class X 25/20/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jan 168 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 009/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10