:Product: 0108RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/2305Z from Region 3939 (S17W0*). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 07/2219Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/2234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1624 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 160 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/25