:Product: 0109RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0026Z from Region 3947 (N12W22). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and likely to be moderate on day three (12 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 09/1748Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/1333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 09/1432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1519 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Jan). III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/10/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jan 162 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 199 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 008/008-008/008-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/35 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/50