:Product: 0110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 10/0942Z from Region 3951 (S15W54). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 10/1110Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/2048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan). III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jan 157 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 008/010-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/10