:Product: 0111RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M0 event observed at 10/2246Z from Region 3947 (N13W37). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 11/0845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 256 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan). III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jan 156 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 007/006-006/006-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/25