:Product: 0112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/1205Z from Region 3951 (S15W82). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 12/0850Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan). III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jan 158 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/006-007/008-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/25/30