:Product: 0113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 13/0215Z from Region 3947 (N11W77). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (16 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 13/1524Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 13/0546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 321 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan). III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 40/40/35 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 160 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-009/010-007/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/30/20