:Product: 0114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 14/1527Z from Region 3962 (N17E82). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 14/1716Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/1724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 402 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Jan, 17 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (16 Jan). III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jan 166 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 009/010-007/006-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/20/25