:Product: 0115RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 15/0856Z from Region 3961 (S09E58). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 15/0104Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 900 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan). III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jan 174 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 180/190/190 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 007/008-007/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/30