:Product: 0116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 16/0726Z from Region 3964 (N07W22). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 16/0147Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 593 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan). III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jan 208 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 210/210/215 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-011/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/25