:Product: 0117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 17/1335Z from Region 3964 (N06W34). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 17/2038Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 17/0514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 764 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 70/70/70 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 227 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 199 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 012/015-010/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/15 Minor Storm 20/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/30/20