:Product: 0118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 18/0058Z from Region 3964 (N06W47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 18/0035Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 705 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 70/70/70 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 222 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 225/230/235 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 199 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-009/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/25/25