:Product: 0120RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 20/1315Z from Region 3968 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 20/1857Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 20/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1175 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan). III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan Class M 65/65/65 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jan 230 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 225/225/225 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 017/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 011/012-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 45/20/20