:Product: 0122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1108Z from Region 3961 (S10W35). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 22/0143Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1497 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan). III. Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jan 214 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 006/005-011/015-021/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/40 Minor Storm 05/20/30 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/60/65