:Product: 0123RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 23/0203Z from Region 3961 (S09W48). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 22/2259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1920 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan). III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jan 215 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 011/015-021/030-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor Storm 20/30/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 60/75/45