:Product: 0124RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/1221Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 23/2334Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan). III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jan 205 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 021/030-014/015-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/15 Minor Storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 75/45/20