:Product: 0125RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 25/0022Z from Region 3961 (S10W76). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 24/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 902 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan). III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jan 182 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 014/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 45/20/20