:Product: 0126RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 26/1546Z from Region 3961 (S10W90). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 26/0049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 939 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Jan). III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan Class M 45/35/30 Class X 10/05/01 Proton 10/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jan 171 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 199 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/25 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 20/20/40