:Product: 0127RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0812Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 27/0124Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/1240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2531 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jan). III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan Class M 25/15/15 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Jan 162 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 198 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/005-008/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 20/40/20