:Product: 0128RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/1945Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 28/0519Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/1635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan). III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jan 171 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 197 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 008/010-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/20/20