:Product: 0129RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/0408Z from Region 3977 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 29/1300Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Feb). III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jan 173 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 196 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/005-009/010-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/30 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/40/40