:Product: 0130RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 30/1416Z from Region 3976 (N13E42). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (02 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 30/1911Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 30/1803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 30/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 45/50/60 Class X 05/05/10 Proton 01/01/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 184 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 195 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 019/026-016/024-011/013 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor Storm 25/25/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/60/40