:Product: 0131RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Jan 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 31/1406Z from Region 3976 (N13E28). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 31/2024Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/0926Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (03 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb). III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 55/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 207 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 210/215/220 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 195 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 017/024-011/013-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/15 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/25