:Product: 0201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 01/1319Z from Region 3977 (N19E14). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 01/1333Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 01/0026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 01/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb). III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Feb 188 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 194 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 013/014-010/010-013/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/30 Minor Storm 15/05/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 50/30/40