:Product: 0202RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 02/1404Z from Region 3977 (N19E00). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 01/2217Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1653 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb). III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Feb 216 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 194 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 021/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 017/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/014-013/018-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 10/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/45/30