:Product: 0203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 03/0358Z from Region 3981 (N05E09). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 03/0714Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 85/85/85 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 220 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 194 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 013/018-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/30/15