:Product: 0205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0750Z from Region 3977 (N18W41). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0749Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 426 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Feb, 08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb). III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 85/85/85 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 191 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 009/008-010/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/25