:Product: 0206RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 06/1104Z from Region 3981 (N08W31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 06/1815Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (09 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb). III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Feb 188 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 010/012-008/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/15