:Product: 0207RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 07/0921Z from Region 3981 (N08W42). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 07/0228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 174 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb). III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb Class M 70/70/70 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Feb 182 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 185/182/180 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-011/014-019/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/40 Minor Storm 05/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/65